The positioning and business model of energy storage in the power system is becoming increasingly clear. At present, the market-oriented development mechanism of energy storage in developed regions such as the United States and Europe has been basically established. The reform of power systems in emerging markets is also accelerating. The large-scale development of the energy storage industry The conditions are ripe, and the global energy storage industry will explode in 2023.
Europe: Low penetration rate, high growth potential, and energy storage has reached a new level
Under the European energy crisis, the high economic efficiency of European household solar storage has been recognized by the market, and the demand for solar storage has started to explode. Residential electricity price contract mechanism. In 2023, the electricity price of newly signed contracts will rise sharply. The average electricity price will be more than 40 euros/MWh, an increase of 80-120% year-on-year. It is expected to continue to maintain high prices in the next 1-2 years, and the rigid demand for solar storage is clear.
Germany exempts household photovoltaic VAT and income tax, and Italy’s household savings subsidy policy has been withdrawn. The favorable policy continues. The German household savings rate of return can reach 18.3%. Considering the subsidy payback period can be shortened to 7-8 years. The long-term independent energy trend, the penetration rate of household storage in Europe in 2021 is only 1.3%, there is broad room for growth, and the industrial, commercial and large storage markets are also growing rapidly.
We estimate that the demand for new energy storage capacity in Europe in 2023/2025 will be 30GWh/104GWh, an increase of 113% in 2023, and CAGR=93.8% in 2022-2025.
United States: Encouraged by ITC policy, outbreaks broke out
The United States is the largest large-scale storage market in the world. In 2022Q1-3, the installed capacity of energy storage in the United States was 3.57GW/10.67GWh, a year-on-year increase of 102%/93%.
As of November, the registered capacity has reached 22.5GW. In 2022, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics will slow down, but the energy storage will still maintain a rapid growth. In 2023, photovoltaic installed capacity will improve, and the penetration rate of superimposed energy storage will continue to increase, supporting the continued explosion of energy storage installed capacity.
The coordination between power suppliers in the United States is poor, energy storage has practical value for regulation, ancillary services are fully open, the degree of marketization is high, and the PPA electricity price is high and the storage premium is obvious. The ITC tax credit is extended for 10 years and the credit ratio is increased to 30%-70%. For the first time, independent energy storage is included in the subsidy, which promotes a significant increase in the rate of return.
We estimate that the demand for new energy storage capacity in the United States in 2023/2025 will be 36/111GWh respectively, a year-on-year increase of 117% in 2023, and CAGR=88.5% in 2022-2025.
China: The demand for policy overweight is increasing rapidly, and the market of 100 billion yuan is beginning to emerge
The domestic mandatory allocation of storage guarantees the increase of energy storage. In 2022Q1-3, the installed capacity is 0.93GW/1.91GWh, and the proportion of large storage in the structure exceeds 93%. According to complete statistics, the public bidding for energy storage in 2022 will reach 41.6GWh. The shared energy storage model is rapidly spreading, and capacity compensation, power spot market, and time-sharing price difference mechanism are gradually implemented to increase the energy storage rate of return.
We estimate that the demand for new domestic energy storage capacity in 2023/2025 will be 33/118GWh respectively, a year-on-year increase of 205% in 2023, and CAGR=122.2% in 2022-2025.
New technologies such as sodium-ion batteries, liquid flow batteries, photothermal energy storage, and gravity energy storage are being implemented and gradually confirmed at the bidding end. Strengthen energy storage safety management, and gradually increase the penetration rate of high-pressure cascade, liquid cooling system, and Pack fire protection. The shipments of energy storage batteries are clearly differentiated, and inverter companies have an advantage in entering PCS.
Taken together: the three major markets in China, the United States and Europe have exploded
Thanks to the outbreak of China-U.S. large storage and European household storage, we predict that the global energy storage capacity demand will be 120/402GWh in 2023/2025, an increase of 134% in 2023, and a CAGR of 98.8% in 2022-2025.
On the supply side, new entrants in the energy storage industry have emerged, and channels are king. The structure of battery cells is relatively concentrated. CATL ranks first in the world in terms of shipments, and shipments of BYD EVE Pine Energy have maintained rapid growth; energy storage inverters focus on channels and brand services, and the concentration of the structure has increased. Sunshine IGBT’s ability to guarantee supply is strong in The large-scale storage market is firmly in the lead, household storage inverters enjoy high growth rates, and the shipments of household storage leaders have increased several times in a row.
Under the accelerated transformation of energy, the cost reduction of photovoltaic ground power stations will usher in the peak of installation in 2023, which will accelerate the outbreak of large storage in China and the United States; household storage will explode in Europe in 2022, and will continue to double in 2023. Household storage in emerging regions such as the United States and Southeast Asia It will also become a mainstream trend, and energy storage will usher in a golden period of development.
Post time: Jan-05-2023